Tiny Nick’s game pick: 6/5

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Locks

MLB – Mets / Padres First 5 innings under 3 (-110): 9:10 pm CT on the MLB network

It’s been a long time since I’ve seen such a low full set total, and I absolutely think the number 6 is justified. However, I hate full play unders because of the extra innings rules, so I’m aiming for the first five innings when those two fiery starting pitchers are on the job.

There is apparently no team that Jacob deGrom cannot dominate, having never had more than one point per start this season. The only team Joe Musgrove can’t dominate is the San Francisco Giants, as every other start has seen him give up no more than two earned runs, and he’s given up one run overall in his last four starts.

In fact, pull out his two starts against San Francisco and Musgrove has a total of five earned runs in fifty innings of work, good for a 0.90 ERA which is surprisingly even higher than deGrom’s for the season. These are two starters who are throwing at an elite level this season and can dominate opposing bats tonight, but neither tend to start late in games, so aim for that early total when you can bet on their. performance.

NBA – Bucks / Nets on 59.5 First Quarter (-110) 6.30 p.m. CT on TNT

The Milwaukee Bucks are one of many teams that have never faced the might of the Big 3 while playing together. They should ask the Boston Celtics how fun it is after the Brooklyn Nets averaged 128.3 PPG in their last four games to complete the first round. Needless to say, this Nets team is clicking on the offensive side right now, and with the Bucks appearance sweeping the Miami Heat, so are they.

That said, the instinct of these two teams is to go out and run, neither really wants to play a game on the half court, even if it is the playoffs. That instinct manifested itself during the regular season series as their first three quarterbacks all eclipsed that number and averaged 64.7 points. Brooklyn hasn’t scored less than 31 points in the first quarter of its last four games against Boston once the Big 3 kicked off, and that should continue here, too.

This game could easily settle in late as the scale of the playoff stakes escalates, so I’m going to target these teams to do what they do best from the start.

Bonus bet: There are a few key injuries in this game that I think will amplify the offense overall – Donte DiVincenzo for the year and Jeff Green for at least this game. Green saw most of the defensive mission against Giannis Antetokounmpo in the regular season series and the Greek Freak averaged 55.3 PAR (Points / Rebounds / Assists). For this game his total props for that sits at 51.5 and I like the most given the lesser defenders he will see tonight.

Degenerate

No degenerate today.

Tiny Nick has 276-180 ATS (+84.4 units) on his locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day, he will offer his hooks and his degenerate choices. Locks are the games he trusts. Degenerates are fun choices, but riskier ones.



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