Tiny Nick’s Play Picks: 5/22

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Locks

NBA – Celtics @ Nets -4.5 First Half (-110): 7:00 p.m. CT on ABC

Conventional wisdom says this series is going to be a runaway and I’m inclined to agree. The Boston Celtics have never faced the wrath of a healthy Brooklyn Nets Big 3, and despite that good fortune during the regular season, they still got a 0-3 ATS score. and directly against the Nets.

The Celtics also had Jaylen Brown for two of those games, but still lost both double digits. Simply put, Brooklyn is about to overwhelm Boston here, and I think they’re doing it early on. As the Nets prepared for the playoffs and approached their full power in their last four games, they’ve beaten that first-half margin every time and have averaged a 10-point advantage.

Matches 1 are usually the ones where the low ranked team gets squashed while the high seed makes a statement. At full power and with a week of rest and preparation, I see Brooklyn shoot all cylinders early as they take a solid lead at halftime.

Bonus bet: Kyrie Irving might miss games for some weird reasons, but he certainly wasn’t going to miss any of the clashes against his former team. He played really well with that extra motivation and I think it continues here. For this game, I’m looking at his points plus assists prop to go over 27.5. He was on average 38 in the series this season, and that was without the full roster of his Big 3 racing mates. When he had at least one of the other players, he averaged 44 points plus assists. As long as this game doesn’t get too out of hand and get some rest, I think Kyrie can wipe that total out pretty easily.

Degenerate

NBA – Heat ML vs Bucks (+170): 1:00 p.m. CT on ESPN

Who remembers the bubble the Miami Heat had last year? Well, during this race they took the Milwaukee Bucks apart. While the bubble is not the same as real life, the Heat definitely remember that domination.

As recently as last week, the Heat essentially stirred their classification game against the Bucks to convince themselves that they would play them again this week. Giannis Antetokounmpo had his struggles in the playoffs and Jimmy Butler is a mental game wizard when it comes to exploiting weaknesses, so look to keep that going today.

I have it as a degenerate because the Heat haven’t been so consistent this year in part with Tyler Herro’s struggles, but for a +170 value I can’t sleep in that Miami squad against a squad. of Milwaukee which was not built for the playoffs.

Tiny Nick is 260-169 ATS (+80.4 units) on his locks since joining zone coverage.

Each day, it will offer its locks and its degenerate choices. Locks are the games he trusts. Degenerates are fun choices but riskier ones.



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