Tuesday NBA Trends, Picks & Parlay – Big Night for Overs


Damian lillard

Damian Lillard and the Blazers are looking to win Game 5 on the road on Tuesday. (Photo by Jevone Moore, Icon Sportswire)

  • NBA punters set to play three playoff games on Tuesday night
  • End of season for Boston tonight against the stacked Brooklyn Nets? The Lakers on the ropes with Anthony Davis injured for Game 5 in Phoenix? Will Nikola Jokic be stuck in the assists column again?
  • Chris Sheridan breaks down the games and trends to watch in the column below

Big night in the NBA playoffs, and what benefits punters the most is that we have a set of playoff jobs to consider when deciding which picks to make. And there are distinct trends that will make those choices much easier – if those trends continue.

The Basics: The Brooklyn Nets are about to send the Boston Celtics to pack their bags for the summer, and it shouldn’t be much of a contest. The gap is Brooklyn -12.5, the biggest line we’ve seen in the 2021 playoffs.

The Lakers are tied 2-2 with the Phoenix Suns, and Anthony Davis is highly questionable to play due to a groin injury. Even if he resists, he will not be 100 percent.

The Portland-Denver series is tied at two games apiece and looks like an instant classic. Game 5 is set in Mile High City, but if Nikola Jokic can’t get his usual number of assists, the Nuggets are in trouble.

Celtics vs Nets 5 Odds Game

Team Propagation to DraftKings Moneyline Total points
Boston Celtics +12.5 (-110) +600 O 233 (-115)
brooklyn nets -12.5 (-110) +160 U233 (-105)

All ratings as of June 1

Why is the line so high?

The Nets lost 141 points to the Celtics a few nights ago, with Kevin Durant for 42, Kyrie Irving at 39 and James Harden distributing 18 assists to go with his 23 points. Irving had a water bottle thrown away after leaving the field, after he disrespected the Celtics’ leprechaun logo, drawing the wrath of Kevin Garnett.

Interestingly, the fan who threw away the water bottle and was arrested for a felony was wearing a Garnett jersey.

The Celtics are 15-20-0 ATS on the road, and the Nets have been beastly in this series with all of their returning players. The over / under is 232, and both teams are more than under: the Nets are 20-16-0 at home in over / unders, and the Celtics are 19-17-0 in over / unders on the road. The last three games of the series have gone from 38.5 (game 4), 17 (game 3) and 10 (game 2).

Lakers vs Suns Game 5 odds

Team Stream to DraftKings Moneyline Total points
the Los Angeles Lakers +5 (-110) +170 O 208 (-115)
Phoenix suns -5 (-110) +200 U208 (-105)

Anthony Davis injured his groin muscle in Game 4, and the Lakers got little from anyone not named LeBron James by dropping 9 points. All of the Phoenix starters hit double digits, as did Cameron Payne, while the Lakers had four single-digit starters and got a total of 42 points from their reserves, or almost the 50 starters.

Big sports betting has taken tons of championship bets off the Lakers throughout the season. Lakers Nation loves to bet, and the books had to keep their odds short in order to protect against a Los Angeles Championship. But this is not the same team that won the title a year ago. Rajon Rondo was a bench killer, Danny Green was an outstanding defender, and Dwight Howard, JaVale McGee and Avery Bradley were productive players. They are all gone.

LA now faces a Phoenix team with a backcourt, Chris Paul and Devin Booker, who the Lakers just can’t defend – especially now that Paul’s shoulder appears to have healed.

The Suns are favored 5 and are 23-13-0 CÉP at home, the third best in the league. The Lakers are 18-17-0 CEP on the road. On the over / under, the Suns are 21-15-0 at home while the Lakers are 12-22-2 on the road. The over / under was set at 207.5, by far the lowest line in the series, and the Lakers are going to go to the free throw line a lot if form holds, as they have shot more free throws in three of the four games. , with significant advantages in two of these games.

Blazers vs Nuggets Game 5 Odds

Team Propagation to DraftKings Moneyline Total points
Portland Trail Blazers +2 (-110) +115 O 227 (-105)
Denver nuggets -2 (-110) -135 U 227 (-115)

There have been three overs in that series, followed by a sub in Game 4 because the Blazers figured out how to keep Nikola Jokic from getting his usual number of assists. He’s only played one in every two games, which is extremely strange for the shoo-in MVP and a triple-double machine.

Denver is 21-14-1 at home and Portland is 19-16-1 on the road. Both coaches will do their utmost to take a 3-2 advantage. Denver is 16-20-0 ATS at home and Portland is 23-13-0 ATS on the road.

It’s the hardest to bet as the teams are even, but Denver hasn’t gotten much from Michael Porter Jr. or Aaron Gordon, making Austin Rivers a key player. This is the same Austin Rivers who has played for six teams in the past three seasons.

So what’s the game? A Five-Way Parlay

Some evenings you stick to the trends. Brooklyn-Boston should be a shootout, with Kyrie elated. The Celtics are on their last legs, so giving points and gaining the upper hand seems prudent. The Lakers are also on the ropes. You never want to bet against LeBron James, but sometimes you can’t ignore the fact that his supporting cast is lacking. The underside is too low because the referees will put it on the line to keep it close.

The 5 point line looks about right. The Blazers as a 2 point road dog look good, but buy an extra half point for insurance. The most have hit in four of the last five games between these teams, with plenty of room to spare.

Chris Sheridan

Sports journalist

Sports journalist


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